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Vision 2030
1. In 1999 the "Vision 2030" project
was commissioned to enable the Highways
Agency (HA) to look further ahead than the
usual 5-10 year planning cycle. The aim
of Vision 2030 was "to develop visions for
mobility needs of people and goods in thirty
years’ time". Clearly, a whole spectrum
of possible futures exists and it is not
possible nor sensible to set out one single
vision. So the approach has been to try
and identify the key factors that are likely
to influence transport over the next 30
years or so and document the main trends
and possibilities.
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Factsheets
2. Transport is influenced by a
range of social, economic and technological
factors. It is a large consumer of energy
and has profound environmental impacts.
The political and legal context will also
influence what happens. Collectively these
topics are all-embracing and intertwined,
therefore the approach has been to focus
on some of the key drivers affecting transport
by preparing a series of "Factsheets" on
the main topics. Inevitably this leads to
some overlaps but the aim was to provide
comprehensive and consistent information
for each topic. There are 10 Factsheets
in total which are cross-referenced in this
summary.
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Transport visions
3. The process of developing the
three Vision 2030 scenarios and twelve transport
visions of the future of inter-urban transport
has drawn heavily on the information gathering
phase of the project. Each of the visions
reflects an imaginable picture of transport
of the future which in turn has important
implications for the HA. The relevant transport
visions are cross-referenced in this summary.
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Validity of information
4. This "evidence" has been collated
solely for the purposes of the Vision 2030
project; to shape informed discussions at
workshops; to facilitate the development
of alternative scenarios, and to reflect
on possible disaster scenarios. Inevitably,
some trends are more predictable than others,
and undoubtedly others will emerge as the
future unfolds. Information has largely
been drawn from recognised sources and authorities.
The web references are intended to help
readers keep up to date with the latest
position, as much of the material collected
is likely to date quickly.
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Other visioning work
5. The HA is not alone in wishing
to develop visions of the future - looking
at possible future needs, opportunities
and threats and deciding what should be
done in readiness for these challenges.
The UK Government’s Foresight Programme[1]
is at the forefront of this activity, collating
information and developing scenarios on
social trends across a broad spectrum of
activities. The European Commission is sponsoring
several relevant projects in the fields
of transport, energy, sustainability, and
the information society (see European
Projects Factsheet). The United
States Department of Transport also completed
a major forward visioning exercise as the
20th Century drew to a close[2]+[3].
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