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Vision 2030 Comparison of Scenarios
/ Visions
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| Global Economy |
“A market driven approach”
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| Better Way of Life |
“Rural bliss in a high-tec
heaven” |
| Control and Plan |
“Responsible regulated
living” |
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| Transport
Vision: The key features |
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| Global Economy |
- Large multi-national organisation run
integrated transport networks as utility
companies on a regional basis (Outsourcing
/ Partnerships)
- Total integration between urban and
Inter-Urban mobility services
- High intensity use of existing network
with some relief / investment of ‘hotspots’
(‘Sweating the Corridor’)
- Lifestyle and transport brokers (‘Lifestylers’)
- Watchdog regulator (OFtrans including
OFroad, OFrail and OFair)
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| Better Way of Life |
- Reduction in routine domestic / non-leisure
trips
- Optimisation of transport corridors
for remaining trips
- Land-use planning takes account of
transport needs
- Greater use of environmentally friendly
/ appropriate modes for a particular trip
- Integrated transport systems (eg Inter-urban
corridors, distribution centres, guided
/ automated lanes ..etc)
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| Control and Plan |
- Government led initiatives ensure use
of the network to meet the desire for
safe quality access with low environmental
impact
- Mechanisms are in place which manage
access to the network thereby reducing
congestion, optimising available capacity
and reducing personal travel and freight
pollution
- Integrated systems on local, regional
and national scales that facilitate multi-modal
decision making before and during the
journey
- Major infrastructure investment
- Provision and encouragement of alternatives
to the car especially in areas of population
concentration
- Development of a ‘Transport Agency’
along the lines of a travel agent through
which journeys are booked and arranged
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| Global Economy |
- Move towards a consumer based democracy
supplied through the private sector
- Population has disregarded the concept
of community in favour of hedonistic self-centred
individuals
- Global acquisition and diversification
in commerce
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| Better Way of Life |
- Rising fossil fuel prices
- Need to cope with climate change
- Community needs and lifestyle rewards
- The old way of doing things just doesn’t
work
- Renewed community spirit (‘doing
your bit’ / peer group pressure /
‘Grass Roots’)
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| Control and Plan |
- With a view to meeting collective wants
and needs the UK Government has adopted
and implemented sustainable strategies
which aim to address:
- The need to preserve the environment
- The importance of international competitiveness
- The desire to protect social diversity
- Focussed centres of population / settlement
patterns
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| Global Economy |
- Facilitation not provision - light-weight
government
- City states plus supranational (market)
regulation
- There is a move away from citizen to
consumer-based democracy
- Privatisation of utilities and infrastructure
is complete
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| Better Way of Life |
- Drivers and changes come from ‘grass
root’ levels
- Some Government regulation, as today,
supported by Local Authorities
- More community based decisions
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| Control and Plan |
- Strong international and inter-governmental
co-operation
- Strong international and inter-governmental
co-operation
- EU extends to Central and Eastern Europe
and the Baltic States with fully integrated
Trans-European road, rail and communications
networks
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| Global Economy |
- Ability to pay is criterion
- Global economy rules as society encourages
and enables the private sector / Multi-national
service providers / organisations
- Profit and market driven opportunities
Highways plc/ Utility plc / Transport
plc
- Understanding and exploitation of ‘niche’
markets
- Horizontal and / or vertical integration
within organisations
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| Better Way of Life |
- Localised business economy (ie concentrations
of employer activities in the centre of
population intensities / clusters of similar
business with local based workforce /
employer strategies …etc)
- Conscious decisions about goods and
where they come from resulting in more
localised production and consumption patterns
- Combined, unified delivery service
(eg community based stores and distribution
centres)
- Improved passenger / freight efficiency
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| Control and Plan |
- Global economy with UK located between
EU and US / North Atlantic markets
- Southeast is focal point for economic
demand and socio-economic growth
- Greater demand for support services
(ie low skill) met by migration / immigration
- Dependent upon residency of multi-national
organisations / Changing industries (eg
car manufacturers are replaced by other
‘sunrise’ organisations)
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| Global Economy |
- Hedonistic self-centred life-styles,
which maximise opportunities for those
people who can afford it. Open divide
exists between the classes as only a small
percentage can afford the services which
they ideally desire (eg education)
- No strong sense of community
- Widespread immigration from poorer
areas / countries to provide support services.
- Mobile workforce Increasingly fragmented
lifestyles, in terms of the diversity
of different groups that one joins to
achieve different purposes or take part
in different activities.
- Social exclusion likely to be an issue
although some nominal system to address
socially excluded
- Services developed to follow profit
/ market opportunities
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| Better Way of Life |
- All actions and aspirations are aimed
at the overall improved quality of life
- Self-sufficient community clusters
/ Strong sense of community
- Decline from rural living / growth
in urban centre living
- Healthier / safer / happier / less
stressed population
- Localised work, social, shopping community
centred lifestyles reduce need for routine
trips thereby minimising the use of private
vehicles in urban areas
- Greater leisure time / more quality
time / spent locally with access for all
(ie little social exclusion)
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| Control and Plan |
- North to south migration continues /
Immigration from Europe and Africa (ie
historic areas of unemployment ‘hotspots’
feed demand in Southeast)
- Diverse population in terms of ethnic
origin, religion, fragmented family unit
and cultural differences. May be social
exclusive or inclusive
- Most successful centres attract higher
populations. ‘Boom time’.
(eg they ooze perception of wealth, infrastructure,
welcoming, sustainable ..etc)
- Increasing wealth and ageing population
will result in a migration of the rich
to warmer climates
- Initial scepticism of ‘controlled’
lifestyle has been overcome through acknowledgement
of the advantages of ‘responsible
living’
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| Global Economy |
- The sky’s the limit. Research and
development will go forward as a public-private
partnership.
- There will be a vast number of tele-communications
channels, offering high access, high bandwidth
for services on the move
- Niche services
- Biometric based security Monitoring
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| Better Way of Life |
- Much of technology is already available
- Continued growth in the use of technology
for home-working / learning / leisure
purposes
- Sustainable energy sources (eg photo-voltaic
panels, fuel cells, heat pumps, areo-generators,
hyper efficient appliances..etc)
- Carbon based vehicles / fuel replaced
- High availability of technology to
all
- Standardisation / compatibility between
UK and EU
- New infrastructure is required (large
initial investment) incorporating new
technology and materials in order to ensure
efficient operation and minimal landtake
/ intrusion
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| Control and Plan |
- Unconfined advances
- System technology (eg mode / journey
selection system, access systems, speed
/ lane control systems, ..etc)
- Infrastructure development (eg highway
lanes, mode segregation, junction design
..etc)
- Smart technology works in conjunction
with enforcement
- Seen as a basis for overcoming congestion
and pollution
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| Global Economy |
- Regulation the key instrument: to provide
a framework in which people / companies
can make a profit. Although this is Global Economy,
the law also provides a key instrument
by which government achieves its goals.
Powerful organisations require anti-trust
solutions.
- The public sector will use tax incentives
and regulation to achieve its goals. California-style
time-dated targets for public policy objectives
such as environmental / safety improvements
(to drive the market)
- Markets will be left to devise the
control mechanisms. They will resist over-regulation.
- There will be pressure to reduce barriers
to market entry: eg full disclosure of
public contract terms
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| Better Way of Life |
- Land use planning regulations to take
account of transport needs whilst encouraging
people / employers to live and work in
sustainable locations (eg incentives,
penalties, accountability …etc)
- Some enforcement / control on IU transport
corridors (eg regulation of vehicle standards,
access arrangements, monitoring and control
...etc)
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| Control and Plan |
- Regulation by Government in the best
interests of society
- Enforcement systems assist speed control
and prevent illegal access / unsafe or
inefficient driving
- Many ‘sacred freedoms’ (eg
right to drive) will be controlled
- Legal framework viewed as relatively
easy to set up
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| Global Economy
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- Global warming and climate change
will still be an issue. Environmental
friendliness: commercial and multi-national
interests will govern Environmental
intervention. Market and commercial
concerns will dominate over global
environment. For example it will
be necessary to encourage recycling.
- The incentives for environment-based
improvements will have to be written
into public contracts. There is
little action unless it becomes
a commercial concern. For example,
the fiscal regime has to be consistent
with the policy (eg incentives to
use brownfield sites)
- There will be a long transition
between the carbon and hydrogen-based
economy
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| Better Way of Life |
- A rapidly increasing number of
people, but far from everyone, have
started to pursue the goal of sustainable
local living
- Sustainable / healthier lifestyles
- Energy efficiency / replacement
of carbon based fuels
- A removal of many routine domestic
trips results in considerable benefits
(eg reduced congestion, use of appropriate
modes, less pollution, safer environment
...etc)
- Although global warming and climate
change continue to be an issue the
UK is experiencing an overall cleaner
environment through the social changes
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| Control and Plan |
- Long term, centrally controlled,
sustainable strategies realised
through a series of achievable targets
- Low environmental impact a key
outcome of the responsible living
concept
- Pollution and emissions will be
improved through vehicle design,
maintenance and use of alternatives
(eg vehicles and fuels)
- Society will demand and achieve
an environment which has a less
noisy / more efficient transport
system through radical control
- A removal of some trips results
in many benefits (eg reduced congestion,
use of appropriate modes, less pollution,
safer environment ...etc)
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| Strengths
and opportunities with the Vision |
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| Global Economy
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- The individual can (if finances
are available) do / achieve what-ever
they desire
- Embraces developing technology
- Personalised lifestyles
- Business is booming
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| Better Way of Life |
- Better for the overall environment
- Improved / happier / healthier
standard of living
- Improved social bonds (eg family-friendly)
- Socially inclusive
- No everyone has to ‘buy-in’
to the way of life
- More efficient land-use / housing
- Embraces developing technology
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| Control and Plan |
- Improved transport safety for
all
- Stricter land use planning regulations
- More integration
- Potential to plan and identify
a journey with certainty
- Maintained social bonds / responsible
living
- Embraces developing technology
- Socially inclusive
- Improved sustainability
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| Weaknesses
and Threats with the Vision |
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| Global Economy
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- Compexity of management structure
- Unexpected outcomes
- Litigation
- Travelling underclass
- Standardisation
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| Better Way of Life |
- Infrastructure investment intensive
to begin with
- More demand for freight and services
/ Capital cost of delivery
- Problems associated with interchange
/ orbital traffic
- Unlikely that everyone will one
day conform with the ‘better
way of life’ / break the need
for private vehicles
- Uncertain role of Government
and overall control
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| Control and Plan |
- Immigration / migration of workforces
may not be sufficient to meet the
demand for (low) skills
- An overall skills deficiency
may create an under class or civil
unrest
- Careful control will be necessary
between diverse population
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| Global Economy
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- Franchising
- Partnerships both public and
private
- Identifying commercial opportunities
and drivers
- Matching terms of commerce to
public objectives
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| Better Way of Life |
- Recolonisation of cities / replacement
and regeneration of suburbia
- Partnerships (eg collective transport
and highway operators ..etc)
- Policy shifts (eg Road User Charging
..etc)
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| Control and Plan |
- Partnerships (eg enforcement agencies)
- Policy Shifts (eg access restrictions,
Road User Charging..etc)
- Targets (eg road safety..etc)
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| Role
of the Network Operator |
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| Global Economy
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- Highways plc runs the UK road
network and operates central European
/ world-wide motorways
- Privatised company financed through
access and shadow tolls
- Sells slots and brokers journeys
with ‘Lifestylers’
- Investment in, and streamlining
of, network
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| Better Way of Life |
- Works closely with industries
and organisations (eg other modes,
local authorities, community, law
enforcement..etc) through strategic
partnerships
- Provides what is required rather
than leading and dictating what
is possible
- Ensures efficient and appropriate
maintenance, regulation and operation
of the transport system
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| Control and Plan |
- Operates / maintains the UK road
network as well as ensuring links
to EU and world-wide
- Safe and efficient high-quality
delivery of passenger and freight
needs in a sustainable manner
- Oversees the rationing of available
road space based on criteria
- Provides a ‘Transportation
Agency’ service through which
‘slots’ are booked
- Works in close partnership with
enforcement agencies
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