People

6.      Demographic factors are important in shaping the UK’s travel patterns. Population growth, the increase in the number of households and their location affect the number of journeys made. Generally, as the population grows, travel tends to rise proportionately due to factors such as increasing car ownership. By 2030 there will be more women drivers and more older drivers on the roads.

Population growth

7.      Over the next 30 years, the UK population is expected to increase by over 5 million to 65m^[4]. Demographic projections indicate that the age distribution of the population will continue to change significantly, as a result of increasing life expectancy linked with declining mortality and morbidity.

Ageing population

8.      Between 2001 and 2031, the over-60s population will rise significantly - from 20% of the population in 2001 to almost 30% by 2030^[4] . The rate of increase is even more dramatic for the over-80s. This "ageing population" will affect transport both directly and indirectly through the make-up of the workforce, consumer preferences for products and services, and the numbers of youthful and ageing drivers, amongst other things.

Land-use

9.      Infrastructure development will have to take into account large numbers of elderly people. Because activities have become more dispersed, personal mobility, although clearly a basic right, is sometimes an obligation. This problem, which relates to land-use planning, will become increasingly important as the population ages. If distances to facilities and services increase, people will find it harder to give up their cars. Providing the elderly with home services in isolation is not likely to be sustainable as the elderly will still want to have a social life, including visits to friends, and this will involve travel.

Regional trends

10.    There are important regional variations in predicted population growth^[5] . The East, South East and South West Regions are projected to show the greatest increases in population (12-13% between 1996 and 2021), followed by London and the East Midlands (9-10%). Population declines are projected for the North East and the North West.

More households

11.    Since the 1970s, there has been a steady increase in the number of households in England and Wales reflecting the slight increase in population and a move to more people living alone. More households will tend to require an increased use of transport and will contribute to the growth in car ownership. The number of households is forecast to continue to grow at a faster rate than the population. Between 1996 and 2021 there is a projected increase in the number of households of about 3.8 million (19%) in England^[5] . This increase has three basic components: population change, behavioural changes, and greater life expectancy. About three quarters of the total projected growth is likely to be due to one-person households. Household growth will be mainly in the South-West, South-East, Cheshire, East Midlands and Eastern regions, with the lowest increase in Merseyside and in the North-East.