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Travel substitution
19. Increased demand for travel brings
increased safety, environmental, energy
and congestion concerns. The increase in
telecommuting, e-commerce, and other advances
that can be a substitute for transport are
likely to slow the growth in transportation
demand. However, continued growth in demand
may need to be restrained through pricing,
regulation, and other mechanisms.
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Road
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More road traffic
20. With increasing prosperity, more
people with driving licences and several
million new households likely over the next
three decades, there is potential for a
dramatic increase in traffic.
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21. The Department for Transport, Local
Government and the Regions (DTLR) publishes
traffic forecasts for cars, lorries and
other road vehicle usage[9]. Between 1996
and 2031 car traffic could grow by more
than a half, according to the central estimate
of the latest National Road Traffic Forecasts.
Van and lorry traffic is forecast to grow
even faster. The forecasts assume no change
in policies, the best available evidence
of driver behaviour and the capacity of
the current road network.
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Not everyone will have a car
22. Car ownership is continuing to increase
as a result of increasing GDP, falling vehicle
purchase costs and changing living arrangements.
However, it is worth noting that one fifth
of households will still not own a car by
2030.
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Driving conditions
23. It is difficult to predict how drivers
will respond to increasing congestion and
longer journey times. DTLR estimates that
journey times will increase considerably,
especially on urban motorways, where they
will double by 2031. Average journey times
on rural motorways are also predicted to
increase substantially, especially in the
peaks. The estimates imply that few people
will decide not to travel as a result of
increasing congestion by 2031 - except in
the conurbations - where up to 12% of private
road travel may be suppressed.
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| Air |
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Global air traffic
24. Demand for air travel has been growing
rapidly, both globally and in the UK, and
the industry is now facing capacity and
environmental constraints. Air transport
is responsible for 8-12% of transport related
carbon emissions and because the carbon
is emitted at high altitude, its potential
impact on global warming is particularly
harmful.
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UK air traffic
25. In the UK, air traffic forecasts
produced by DTLR[10] show that unconstrained
demand for passenger air travel may more
than double by 2015. Air traffic at UK airports
is expected to grow at an annual average
of 4.5% between 1995 and 2020 under the
mid-point forecasts (with no capacity constraints).
There is already a shortage of capacity
at some airports because of runway or terminal
constraints.
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| 26. The UK has several important
international hub airports. ICAO figures for
1998 show that Heathrow served more international
passengers than any other airport in the world,
and Gatwick was sixth in the list. During
the1990s, regional airports have grown faster
than London airports and this trend seems
likely to continue[11]. |
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Surface access to airports
27. Major airports have the potential
to become efficient transport interchange
hubs, although such hubs risk attracting
traffic to already congested areas. Many
airports have begun to develop good public
transport access schemes such as the Heathrow
Express.
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| Rail |
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Upward trend in rail journeys
28. Rail travel accounts for about 6%
of passenger billion kms travelled by all
modes[12] . Rail patronage has been steadily
increasing over the past five years and
at 38 billion in 1999/2000, passenger-kms
are at a level last reached over 50 years
ago[13].
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| 29. By 2010, in order to
meet the growing demand for transport, and
to reduce its environmental impact, the Government
hopes that large-scale investment in upgrading
and expanding the rail network will allow
50% more passengers to travel by train[14].
Since privatisation, demand for rail passenger
services has increased substantially and growth
is forecast to continue, particularly if capacity
can be provided and quality improved. The
achievement of these objectives will require
significantly higher investment than has been
seen previously. |
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30. Although there is spare
track and station capacity in parts of the
network, capacity shortages at key bottlenecks
restrict the operators' ability to schedule
new services with journey times and service
quality that would be commercially attractive.
Apart from identifying and prioritising measures
to deal with these bottlenecks the main inter-regional
priorities are to modernise and increase capacity
on the West Coast and East Coast Main lines,
and the high speed Channel Tunnel Rail Link[15]
.
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Lifestyles
